CALIFORNIA - In the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released today, evidence is now showing El Niño to bring wetter-than-average rains, as well as improved drought conditions, across virtually all of California, forecasters predicted for the first time this week.

The new forecast is significant because it raises the chance that El Niño will send large storms not only to just Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area, as forecaster had previously anticipated, but also to the mountains, which will then feed into California’s reservoirs and snowpacks. 

"Strong El Niño conditions are ongoing across the equatorial Pacific, with robust atmospheric coupling," according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). "The latest CPC ENSO advisory indicates a 95 percent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the winter months. Therefore, climate anomalies associated with El Niño events, which become increasingly prominent over the U.S. during the Fall and Winter months, played a significant role in this outlook." 

The outlook reports that the Southwest will likely see an early wet season, improving drought conditions across central and southern California. The CPC also says there is "greater confidence for improvement across the coastal regions and valleys."

"A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter," says Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snowstorms will likely occur at times this winter.” 

But don’t get too excited yet folks. Despite this being unequivocally good news for a state dealing with almost half a decade of drought, forecasters warn that we shouldn't expect conditions to improve entirely. 

"While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought," continued Halpert. "California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that's unlikely."

The CPC’s next seasonal outlook will be issued November 19, so stay tuned to AndNowUKnow for continued updates on how El Niño may affect the state.

NOAA