CALIFORNIA – Scientists say that the chances of El Niño conditions developing by this fall are increasing.  They are now at 82%, up from 78% last month and 36% since last November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Niño is the phenomenon when ocean waters warm and bring California wet winters.  After a third year of drought, this could be good news for California.  Unfortunately, it's not a guarantee. NOAA scientists are now saying that it looks like a moderate El Niño is developing instead of a strong one, according to Mercury News.

"The question now is what flavor of El Niño we're going to get," said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. "I've got my money on this being El Wimpo."

Historically, strong El Niños have almost always brought heavy rains to California where moderate and weak ones only deliver wetter than average winters about half of the time.

California is in its worst drought since the one starting in 1987 and desperately needs the rain.  There is extreme wildfire risk, fallowed farmland and water restrictions expected until November.  The National Weather Service has also forecasted a hotter than normal summer for California.

Since 1950, there have 16 moderate to weak and 6 strong El Niño events, according to Mercury News.  "Historically, there is a better chance of having above-normal rainfall than if there were no El Niño," said Jan Null, with Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga, which compiled the data. "But there are no guarantees."

Stay tuned to AndNowUKnow for continued coverage on California’s drought.