Hurricane Season Will be Light but Not Easy
UNITED STATES - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the 2015 hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1st.
While it has been determined to be a light hurricane season, officials caution that this doesn’t necessarily mean an easy time for coastal locations like Louisiana or parts of Florida and Georgia, according to a press release.
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” Kathryn Sullivan, Ph. D, Administrator for the NOAA, stated in the release.
The NOAA's reported predictions for the season include:
- A 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 “named storms,” meaning winds of 39 mph or higher
- The possibility of 3 to 6 of those storms forming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- A chance of 0 to 2 major hurricanes - category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher
While a below to normal season is predicted to be 70 percent likely at this point, the NOAA report also lists a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, with a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
The chances of the hurricanes remaining minimal, officials stated, is due to our being in an El Niño year.
“The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, commented. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”
NOAA will reportedly issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season before the peak portion of the season in early August. The end of the hurricane season comes to a close on the 30th of November.
